A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
